Extreme Cold Forecast for Texas in Winter 2025

NEW YORK (Reuters) – This winter is forecasted to bring sudden bouts of extreme cold to Texas, potentially testing the state's electric grid in early 2025, according to the grid operator's chief meteorologist, Chris Coleman.

During an ERCOT board meeting, Coleman stated, "We're in a pattern that supports something like a Uri this winter." He further emphasized, "The more I look at this winter, the more cold potential I see."

Storm Uri, which occurred four years ago, previously caused widespread blackouts affecting millions and resulted in over 240 deaths. This crisis prompted Texas to undertake significant grid reliability improvements.

Coleman pointed to various ocean and atmospheric patterns that indicate a likelihood of winter weather akin to that experienced in early 2021.

As winter weather becomes more severe, demand on Texas' electric grid is increasing. On January 16, Texas recorded its most significant winter demand spike, reaching over 78,400 megawatts.

Interestingly, out of the last eight winters, five experienced severe cold periods, while only three of the prior 25 winters documented such extremes, according to Coleman.

He also noted that, while instances of extreme cold are rising, the average winter temperatures have generally been warmer. For instance, last winter was recorded as the 11th warmest since 1895, as per historical data.