Thailand’s Economic Outlook

BANGKOK (Reuters) – Thailand’s economy is still expected to grow between 2.4% to 2.9% this year despite intensifying global trade wars and increased competition from imported goods, a leading joint business group said on Wednesday.

Domestic demand remains weak while the strengthening of the baht poses a challenge to exports, a key driver of Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking said.

The group said it was also maintaining its export growth forecast at 1.5% to 2.5% this year, even as U.S. tariffs on China raise concerns of more global trade disruption.

Last year, exports increased 5.4% to a record $301 billion. Kriengkrai Theinnukul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said shipments had been boosted by stockpiling before President Donald Trump took office.

> “It may not be real demand. We will wait and see how this will affect exports in the first quarter,” he told a news conference.

Kriengkrai said Thai exports could become more competitive following U.S. tariffs on other countries.

Trump has imposed tariffs on China and signalled the 27-nation European Union would be his next target, but he has suspended plans to level 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada for 30 days.

The influx of Chinese goods into Thailand remains a problem and as many as 30 industries will be affected this year if no proper measures are taken, Kriengkrai said.

> “China has clearly stated that it must produce and find markets. We have to protect ourselves,” he said.

For 2024, the group estimated economic growth at 2.8%. Official growth data is due to be released on Feb. 17.