Trudeau’s Political Journey

(Reuters) – Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces an uncertain future after the small party that has helped keep his Liberal minority government in power withdrew its automatic support on Wednesday.

The blow is the latest in a series of political woes and missteps that have helped reduce Trudeau’s popularity. Recent polls show his Liberals would be crushed by the official opposition Conservatives in an election that must be held by the end of October 2025. The withdrawal of the left-leaning New Democratic Party from its agreement with the Liberals could bring forward an election months earlier.

Timeline of Key Events in Trudeau’s Political Journey

• OCTOBER 2013 – Wins race to become leader of Liberal Party
  Trudeau, the son of former Liberal Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, won the leadership of his party at a time when it was at an all-time low. The Liberals had been out of power for more than seven years and were reduced to third-place status in the House of Commons in 2011 for the first time.

• OCTOBER 2015 – Leads party to victory in federal election
  Trudeau’s Liberals, campaigning on a message of change and hope, won a majority of the seats in the federal election, defeating the Conservatives. This marked the first time that the third-placed party in the House of Commons had ever won an election in Canada.

• DECEMBER 2017 – Found guilty of conflict of interest
  Canada’s ethics commissioner ruled that Trudeau had broken conflict of interest rules by accepting vacations, gifts, and flights from the Aga Khan in 2016. This was the first time a prime minister had been found to have committed such a transgression.

• FEBRUARY 2019 – SNC-Lavalin scandal
  Former Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould accused government officials of inappropriately pressuring her to help construction giant SNC-Lavalin avoid a corruption trial. The affair led to the resignations of several key aides and ministers, damaging Trudeau’s image as a feminist.

• SEPTEMBER 2019 – Blackface scandal erupts ahead of election
  Photos emerged of Trudeau in blackface from his past just as the 2019 election campaign began. He acknowledged his privilege and expressed remorse.

• OCTOBER 2019 – Liberals reduced to minority in House
  In the Oct. 21, 2019 election, the Liberals were reduced to a minority in the House of Commons, forcing them to negotiate with opposition legislators to govern.

• AUGUST 2020 – Finance Minister resigns
  Finance Minister Bill Morneau resigned amid disagreements with Trudeau regarding COVID-19 funding and scrutiny over his ties to a charity.

• SEPTEMBER 2021 – Failed bid to win back majority in House
  Trudeau triggered a national vote in September 2021, hoping for a reward for his government’s pandemic response, but was returned with a second successive minority.

• JULY 2023 – Polls show Liberals steadily losing popularity
  Polls indicated that the Liberals began trailing the Conservatives, with a significant widening of the gap in July, suggesting potential defeat in 2025.

• JUNE 2024 – Liberals suffer bad defeat in special election
  Losing a safe seat in a special election in Toronto was a clear indicator of growing unpopularity for the Liberals, although Trudeau stated he would remain in office.

• SEPT 2024 – Key ally withdraws automatic support
  The New Democrats, who had supported Trudeau in exchange for increased social spending, announced they would withdraw their automatic support. This puts pressure on Trudeau to form new alliances to remain in power.