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There are a handful of big themes coming out of the Digital Asset Summit (think regulation, macro, etc.) and then there are some smaller themes (venture capital, narratives and fundamentals). Fundamentals have been something I’m especially keen on.
We’ve spoken to Blockworks Research’s Ryan Connor about the role they’re playing, and I think I’ve vocalized my excitement for fundamentals a few times now. However, we’re still not really seeing that play out.
In a panel with the one-and-only Connor yesterday, Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, told the crowd that he used to say token prices were half fundamentals and half flows — but he doesn’t believe that anymore.
“I think it’s 90% flows and 10% fundamentals. And you can see that in the market cap of XRP versus Ethereum, and just look at how much economic activity goes across Ethereum versus XRP,” he explained.
Speaking as a former stock market girl (aka reporter), it’s rough. But he has a point, and “you have to, I guess, respect the tape.”
For Sigel, it means that his firm’s been very selective on projects they’re backing.
“You may have noticed [that] many of our competitors have been throwing a lot of single token ETFs at the wall this year in terms of filings. We’ve been much more judicious on that, instead doubling down on our active strategies. And it just means that we’re passing on more investments, because the active strategies are looking for great, doxxed teams that are building product equivalent where tokens should be able to actually capture value over the medium-run,” he explained.
Unfortunately, it seems that we’re still not fundamentally focused — but I’ll hold out hope for that day.
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