TRADING DAY

Making Sense of the Forces Driving Global Markets

By Alden Bentley, Editor in Charge, Americas Finance and Markets

Jamie is enjoying some well-deserved time off, but the Reuters markets team will still keep you up to date on what markets were focused on today and why they took a breather. I’d love to hear from you so please feel free to reach out at.

Today’s Key Market Moves

• On Wall Street, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were almost flat.
• U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly.
• The dollar inched higher.
• Crude oil rose.
• Gold fell.

Today’s Key Reads

• From ‘fantastic’ to ‘spoiled’: How Japan’s trade effort to woo Trump backfired.
• Gold ETFs drew the largest inflow in five years during the first half of 2025, WGC says.
• In the Fed’s hunt for a reason to cut rates, surveys and tariffs make answers elusive.
• Investors put ‘Liberation Day’ lessons to work, scarred by tariff tumult.
• Trump says steep copper tariffs in store as he broadens his trade war.

No Tariff Clarity, or Market Movement

Investors let the fluid tariff situation simmer on Tuesday, sitting on their hands a day after knocking stock indexes back from record highs as U.S. President Donald Trump warned that new levies would hit a range of trading partners, including Japan and Korea. While Wall Street was in sideways mode, seemingly fatigued by tariff headlines, the beaten down dollar posted the second of back-to-back gains and Treasury yields ticked higher for the fifth day running.

The new date to watch is August 1, with Trump again showing his eagerness to allow time to reach deals by pushing back the deadline, which had been Wednesday since he postponed April’s ill-received opening tariff gambit.

Meanwhile, the market will stay ready for surprising turns from the White House and will otherwise be waiting for economic data, the Federal Reserve, and other known unknowns to incentivize trade. No major indicators are on the calendar this week, and the only set pieces to look for Wednesday are the auction of $39 billion of 10-year notes, the Treasury’s benchmark U.S. debt instrument, and the release of minutes from the Fed’s last meeting when they held the policy rate at 4.25%-4.5%, where it has been since December.

Futures show investors expect cuts beginning in September. Last week, we saw the unemployment rate decrease in June, while inflation has ticked up, also the wrong direction for easing soon.

The June transcript won’t reveal policymakers in great discord. They weren’t very divided in their economic projections, with 10 seeing several cuts this year and nine effectively pushing easier monetary policy into 2026.

Powell has insisted that any cuts will depend on the data. Meanwhile, the market will wait for the numbers and probably take the minutes in stride too.

What Could Move Markets Tomorrow?

• U.S. Treasury auctions $39 billion of 10-year Treasury notes.
• Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee June meeting.

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Trading Day is also sent by email every weekday morning. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here.