Crypto-based Prediction Markets and Impeachment Odds

Crypto-based prediction markets indicate that the odds of impeachment for US President Donald Trump remain low despite congressional efforts.

According to data from Polymarket, crypto bettors estimate there is only a 6% chance that Trump will face impeachment proceedings in the US House of Representatives before the end of 2025. This reflects a slight increase from 5% earlier in the week, but it remains insignificant.

Polymarket’s terms state that the outcome will be resolved as “Yes” only if the House approves one or more articles of impeachment against Trump by a simple majority vote before 11:59 P.M. ET on December 31, 2025. A Senate trial or conviction is not necessary for resolution.

The prediction market relies on official government releases and verified reports from credible media outlets for determining results.

As of now, the market has generated over $1.3 million in betting volume.

Although Trump was impeached twice during his previous term, he was acquitted both times in the Senate. Currently, data from the prediction markets suggests that history is unlikely to repeat itself.

Impeachment Threat Renewed

The speculation increased following political actions, notably Representative Al Green introducing an article of impeachment on June 24, arguing that Trump bypassed Congress before authorizing military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

The resolution states:
> “Donald J. Trump has abused the powers of the presidency in a manner contrary to his trust as President, has become a threat to American democracy, subverted our constitutional government, and devolved democracy into authoritarianism, to the great prejudice of the cause of law and justice, and to the manifest injury of the people of the United States.”

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also expressed her support for impeachment over the weekend, indicating that the recent strikes against Iran were unconstitutional.

In response, Trump criticized the impeachment threats in a lengthy Truth Social post on June 24, mocking Ocasio-Cortez and other Democrats, whom he labeled “stupid” and accused of struggling to accept his political successes.

According to him:
> “The reason for [their] ‘rantings’ is all of the victories that the USA has had under the Trump Administration. The Democrats aren’t used to WINNING, and [they] can’t stand the concept of our country being successful again.”