Presidential Election Odds Overview

Ahead of Tuesday's upcoming Presidential election, all major prediction markets project former President Donald Trump has a greater chance of victory than his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris.

However, his odds have fallen an average of 3.8% across prediction markets in the past week, according to ElectionBettingOdds.com, with significant drops on Kalshi and Polymarket, favored by crypto investors.

Odds Breakdown

On Kalshi and Polymarket, Trump's odds of victory have decreased over 10% from their all-time highs. Trump's peak of 71.5% on Polymarket, reached on July 16, has since dropped to 59.1%, while his odds on Kalshi slid from 65.2% on October 29 to 55% currently.

Trump's odds on Polymarket fell to as low as 57.1% on Saturday—within a 15-point margin of Harris's 42.8% odds—before recovering slightly. Election-watchers are monitoring early voting returns and late polls, which show Harris leading among Puerto Ricans in Florida after remarks made by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe at Trump's Madison Square Garden rally last week.

On Polymarket, Harris has also taken the lead in key swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan, which are critical for victory. The prediction marketplace announced, "Kamala Harris is gaining ground."

Théo's Bets and Declared Independence

Meanwhile, a French man known as Théo, who has attracted attention by placing significant bets on Trump's victory, denied any political agenda or connections in an interview with the Wall Street Journal.

Théo, a former U.S. trader, stated his bets were based on the belief that polls underestimated Trump, asserting he has no affiliations with political campaigns or personal political goals.

> “I have absolutely no political agenda,” Théo claimed in an email. He believes a Trump victory could yield him $80 million, more than double his initial $30 million investment, and assesses Trump's odds of winning at 80-90%.