UK Economic Outlook

The UK is expected to outperform its European counterparts over the next 15 years, maintaining its position as the world’s sixth-largest economy by 2039, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

Comparisons with Other Economies

Britain will hold its lead over France, projected to remain in seventh place, while Germany, Italy, and Spain are expected to slip down the global rankings. The UK is forecasted to narrow the economic gap with Germany, which will be 20% larger than Britain’s economy in 2039, compared to the current 31%.

> "While this outlook is markedly better than key European peers like France and Germany, both of whom are expected to slip, this reflects a relatively poorer outlook for Eurozone economies rather than strong UK growth," CEBR said.

Political Context

The report arrives as Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces economic challenges during Labour’s early months in government. Official data show no economic growth since Labour took power in July, with survey indicators pointing to a weak end to 2024 and further strain into 2025.

Starmer plans to drive faster growth through:
– planning reforms
– housing initiatives
– public investment

However, CEBR warns that recent tax hikes could weigh on short-term activity. Over the longer term, it expects Britain’s trend growth rate to stabilize at 1.8%.

Global Perspective

Globally, the United States is projected to retain its position as the largest economy, fending off competition from China.