U.S. Power Consumption Forecast

(Reuters) – U.S. power consumption is expected to peak in 2024 and 2025, as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.

Key Projections

• Power Demand:
  • 2024: 4,093 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh)
  • 2025: 4,163 billion kWh
  • 2023: 4,000 billion kWh
  • 2022: Record 4,067 billion kWh

With increasing demand from artificial intelligence and data centers, along with higher electricity use in homes and businesses for heating and transportation, the EIA forecasts:
– Residential sales: 1,503 billion kWh in 2024 (compared to a 2022 high of 1,509 billion kWh)
– Commercial sales: 1,412 billion kWh in 2024 (up from 1,391 billion kWh in 2022)
– Industrial sales: 1,033 billion kWh in 2024 (compared to 1,064 billion kWh in 2000)

Generation Mix

• Natural Gas:
  • Expected to maintain a 42% share in 2024, decreasing to 39% in 2025.
• Coal:
  • Decreasing from 17% in 2023 to 16% in 2024 and 2025.
• Renewable Energy:
  • Rising from 21% in 2023 to 23% in 2024 and 25% in 2025.
• Nuclear Power:
  • Stable at 19% in 2024 and 2025.

Gas Sales Forecast

• Projected to ease to:
  • Residential: 12.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd)
  • Industrial: 23.3 bcfd
  • Commercial: 9.2 bcfd (increase)
  • Power Generation: 36.4 bcfd

Historical peaks for gas sales:
– Residential: 14.3 bcfd in 1996
– Commercial: 9.6 bcfd in 2019
– Industrial: 23.8 bcfd in 1973
– Power Generation: 35.4 bcfd in 2023.