Prediction Market Surge Before U.S. Election

One day before the United States presidential election on Nov. 5, the prediction market for its outcome surpassed $3 billion on the decentralized platform Polymarket.

As of 12:15 p.m. ET on Nov. 4, the total betting volume reached $3.13 billion. Republican candidate Donald Trump had $1.2 billion in betting volume, while Democratic candidate Kamala Harris followed with $782.5 million. The winning odds were reported as Trump 56.3% and Harris 43.8%, noting a significant decline of over 10% in Trump's odds over the weekend.

Polymarket's prediction market had previously crossed $1 billion on Sept. 24 and $2 billion on Oct. 17, driven largely by interest in the 2024 presidential election. Reportedly, the month-over-month trading volume spiked by 368% between September and October, culminating in $2.5 billion in monthly trading volume and nearly 235,300 active traders.

In response to the rising interest in prediction markets, Robinhood Derivatives launched event contracts in late October, enabling individual bets on the 2024 U.S. presidential election results.

Polymarket also clarified their payout process, stating that the market will resolve when AP, Fox News, and NBC News all announce a winner. If no consensus is made by January 20, 2025 (inauguration day), payouts will be based on who is inaugurated.