Wanted: Pliable French PM who will not torpedo Macron's legislative legacy

investing.com • 04/09/2024 - 11:50 AM

Macron’s Challenges in Naming a New Prime Minister

By Elizabeth Pineau and Leigh Thomas

PARIS (Reuters) – Nearly three months after plunging France into political crisis by calling a snap election, President Emmanuel Macron is struggling to name a new prime minister whom rivals will not immediately topple—and who will preserve his pro-business legacy.

The election delivered a hung parliament, compelling Macron to pick a prime minister who can appease three similarly sized political blocs: the left, the far right, and his centrist coalition, with little inclination to compromise.

Macron has been meeting with political leaders from across the spectrum to identify a potential prime minister for weeks, but to little avail. His weakened position following the election has left him with limited choices, forcing him to consider concessions regarding his hard-won pension reform, which the left detests, or to forgo tax hikes demanded by conservatives.

Arthur Delaporte, a Socialist lawmaker, remarked, “The president is taking his time because he doesn’t want a prime minister who will touch his economic legacy. Tax hikes and retirement reform are his red lines.”

Rivals are reluctant to appear supportive of Macron, given his unpopularity on both the left and right. His bargaining position worsened when Edouard Philippe, his popular former prime minister, announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, seizing the opportunity presented by Macron’s difficulties.

Despite this unpredictability, Macron is unlikely to resign, though the challenges he faces raise questions about whether he will complete his second and final term. Delaporte described Philippe’s move as “a stab in the president’s back,” while Conservative Senator Bruno Retailleau suggested that we have entered a new phase in French politics.

Weeks of Talks

Sources close to Macron indicate that, after several weeks of consultations, he has narrowed potential prime minister candidates to ex-Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve from the left and former Labour Minister and Hauts-de-France regional head Xavier Bertrand from the conservatives. It remains unclear if either could secure enough parliamentary support to form a government or face immediate no-confidence votes that would undermine Macron and reset the political situation.

Senator Laure Darcos, a Bertrand ally, told Reuters that he would not attempt to dismantle Macron’s 2023 retirement reform, which triggered lengthy street protests and was passed by circumventing parliament. However, the left and far right are determined to reverse it, while even Macron’s centrist ally, veteran politician Francois Bayrou, has suggested that the president might need to consider making modifications to soften it.

As Macron continues his search for a prime minister, public finances are deteriorating rapidly, with outgoing Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire noting that tens of billions of euros in budget cuts are necessary. Left-wing lawmakers are advocating for broad-based tax hikes, which are hardly acceptable to Macron, who has cut taxes on companies and households by over €50 billion since he took office in 2017.

Conservative lawmaker Veronique Louwagie stated that her Republican party could not support a prime minister who would raise taxes or permit public finances to deteriorate further.

Whomever Macron selects will encounter significant challenges, as time is running out to prepare the 2025 budget legislation. Failure to satisfy other parties could trigger a separate vote of no confidence. If that occurs, left-wing lawmaker Eric Coquerel noted, “I don’t see any other solution than Macron’s resignation. When things are blocked, something’s got to give.”




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