Solana’s Struggles in March

Solana (SOL) is experiencing a challenging month, with forecasts indicating further price declines throughout March.

Declining Probability of Price Increases

According to Polymarket data, the likelihood of Solana surpassing its all-time high of $300 this month has plummeted from 9% on March 2 to a mere 1%. Meanwhile, there is a 72% chance that the cryptocurrency will drop to $110 from its current price of $118.94.

Broader Market Trends

Solana’s decline is part of a larger downturn in the cryptocurrency sector. The price of SOL has dropped nearly 60% since President Donald Trump took office. This downward trend is not unique to Solana, as rival cryptocurrency XRP is also facing similar issues.

Contributing Factors

Several factors have contributed to Solana’s struggles, including:
– Trump’s erratic trade policies with China and allied nations
– The unmet expectations regarding his pro-crypto stance
– The $1.5 billion hack of the Bybit exchange

Additionally, Solana’s reputation faced challenges in February when Argentine President Javier Milei introduced the Libra memecoin, which was launched on the Solana network. The token briefly reached a market cap of $4 billion before crashing by 80% in an hour, resulting in $1.6 billion in losses for investors.

Revised Forecasts

Adding to the uncertainty, Polymarket forecasters have lowered their expectations for Solana’s potential inclusion in the newly announced U.S. strategic crypto reserve. On March 2, following Trump’s unexpected announcement regarding the reserve, the probability of SOL being included was at 42%. This figure has since dropped to 23%.

The probability of a Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved in 2025 also saw a decline from 86% to 79% over the weekend. Several asset managers, including Franklin Templeton, have submitted applications for a Solana ETF, some of which have received acceptance from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

*This is not investment advice.