Bitcoin Price Analysis

• Strongest resistance for Bitcoin sits at $97,828, where 360,470 BTC were accumulated
• Bitcoin often bounces off the 50-week moving average, which now stands at $74,700

Bitcoin’s (BTC) cost basis distribution chart highlighted two critical levels: strong resistance at $97,828 and significant support at $64,078. About 360,470 BTC were accumulated at the resistance level, marking it as a major psychological and technical barrier.

Historically, the price struggles to break past such high-density accumulation zones unless there is a surge in demand or a strong catalyst. A bull cycle or surge in ETF inflows could act as a substantial catalyst for breaking through the aforementioned resistance.

Conversely, the $64,078 support level has 194,530 BTC, indicating an area where buyers have historically stepped in to prevent further declines.

As per the price structure, Bitcoin rallied from $55,000 in September 2024 to peak above $108,000 in early 2025, showcasing strong momentum along the way.

The heavy buying pressure in the $60,000 to just below $75,000 range indicated that many investors acquired BTC within this bracket. The recent retracement from highs near $100,000 has brought BTC back towards the upper bands of this high-support zone.

If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $97,000, it risks further corrections towards $75,000 before retesting the $64,000 zone. A break below this level would confirm further downside potential, possibly dragging BTC down to $55,000.

On the contrary, a strong breakout above $97,000 could trigger a renewed uptrend, targeting new highs above $108,000.

Where will BTC strike first?

A further analysis revealed that Bitcoin’s historical trend usually finds support at the 50-week moving average, currently sitting at $74,700. In fact, in each cycle, BTC has previously tested the MA after a strong rally before continuing its upward trajectory.

For example, Bitcoin approached this moving average in 2015, 2019, and 2021, with each instance leading to a significant price bounce. At the time of writing, BTC had retraced from its recent high near $97,000 while moving towards the $74,700 support zone, despite its recent efforts at recovery.

If BTC holds above its current level around $85,000, a rebound and possibly a retest of the $90,000 resistance could follow. However, if it loses this support, deeper retracement toward $64,000 is likely, a level with substantial accumulated BTC.

A break below $64,000 would shift market sentiment bearish, potentially triggering a larger correction. Conversely, reclaiming $97,000 and holding it as support would increase the probability of new all-time highs beyond $108,000.

With Bitcoin historically bouncing at this key moving average, the upcoming weeks will be crucial in determining whether it continues its bullish cycle or enters a prolonged correction phase.