Elon Musk’s DOGE Budget Strategies

DOGE has devised strategies to cut the federal budget, from auditing Fort Knox gold reserves to creating a DOGE dividend. However, sentiment on betting markets like Polymarket suggests that these plans may be too ambitious.

Extreme Measures to Fulfill Goals

DOGE has taken extreme measures to fulfill its goals, such as major layoffs from several government agencies and the shutdown of the US Agency of International Development.

According to DOGE’s official savings tracker, the organization has saved $65 billion of the government’s budget to date. However, this achievement has not won bettors’ confidence in DOGE’s future promises. Overall, their hopes seem to be low based on Polymarket data.

Polymarket Bettors’ Predictions

Elon Musk aimed for budget cuts of up to $2 trillion, claiming that reaching half that amount would be “an epic outcome.” Federal government spending reached $6.9 billion in 2024, meaning DOGE needs to cut $345 billion to hit the 5% mark in 2025.

According to Polymarket’s predictions, Musk’s 5% cut is unlikely, with 74% of bettors predicting against it.

DOGE Dividend Scenario

Elon Musk claimed that Trump is “supportive of” the DOGE dividend idea. During last week’s CPAC conference, he said, “It sounds like that is something we are going to do.” If Musk achieves targeted costs, around $5,000 could be distributed per taxpayer. Currently, Polymarket shows 31% positivity for this plan, leaving 69% negative.

Auditing the Federal Reserve

On an X post, Elon Musk responded to questions about auditing the Federal Reserve, stating: “All aspects of the government must be fully transparent and accountable to the people. No exceptions, including, if not especially, the Federal Reserve.” Polymarket doesn’t see this happening; 79% voted No, with only 21% voting Yes.

Polymarket Cancels Prediction

Polymarket stopped accepting bets on DOGE cutting $3 billion worth of DEI contracts due to unreliable data from its DOGE tracker. Polymarket received $16,352 in bets, but due to changes in the data, it canceled the bet with a 50-50 outcome, refunding all losses.

A user on X revealed multiple errors made by DOGE when logging in the FPDS database, accusing the agency of doing “damage control.” They claimed actual savings totaled around $32.5 billion, citing overestimates in DOGE’s claims.

> “And despite applying most of the changes I called for… they STILL CLAIM TO HAVE SAVED $55B.”
> — @electricfutures

While DOGE has corrected some errors, issues in how they estimate savings for contracts remain.