Altcoins Likely to Collapse in Q3 2025, Says Analyst Benjamin Cowen

Widely followed crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen predicts that altcoins may face a significant downturn in the third quarter of 2025. In a recent strategy session, he shared insights with his 874,000 YouTube subscribers regarding the correlation between altcoins and Bitcoin (BTC).

Cowen suggests that based on historical cycles, altcoins might experience another decline around Q3 of this year, before beginning to recover around November.

> “I think at some point this year, altcoins are probably going to break down… And maybe they’ll do that this summer and then we’ll see them sort of bounce back up later on this year. Remember, the big move by alt/Bitcoin pairs in 2017 didn’t actually occur until November.”

His analysis includes a chart examining TOTAL3—an index tracking the total value of all digital assets except Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and stablecoins—which indicates it could drop below the 0.27 line when paired with BTC. Currently, TOTAL3/BTC is at 0.47.

In previous cycles, a dip of TOTAL3/BTC to the 0.27 area has resulted in a collapse of the altcoin market. Cowen emphasizes that the strength of the altcoin market is closely tied to Bitcoin and, to some extent, the yields in 10-year Treasuries, which reflect investor risk appetite.

> “If Bitcoin breaks up to a new cycle high, then I think Bitcoin would lead that move, so the altcoin markets’ fate in March is just dependent on Bitcoin. If Bitcoin goes up, they’ll go up too… If Bitcoin breaks down, I think it would probably correspond to maybe a surge in the long end of the yield curve.”

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $96,637, showing a 1.3% gain over the last day.