Bitcoin Price Update

The Bitcoin short-term price action was range-bound, but the sentiment was intensely bearish.

Current Price Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to a local low of $93.4k on February 18. This price movement followed an AMBCrypto analysis suggesting a fall to $94k, indicating a subsequent rebound was likely.

At the time of reporting, the price was back above the $96k mark. Given the range-bound price action over the past two weeks, the $99k level is the next short-term price target.

Despite the Trump tariffs and sell-offs among spot ETFs, Bitcoin has maintained its position above the $90k mark. This resilience raises questions: Should investors view this as a warning sign, or consider buying more?

Bears Still Rule the Market

Crypto analyst Axel Adler noted the advanced Bitcoin sentiment index reflected strong bearish sentiment. This metric incorporates Open Interest, Net Taker Volume, Volume Delta, and Volume weighted average price.

The bell chart indicated that the most common sentiment over the last month was at 43%. The reading at press time has dropped to 31%, signaling a shift towards bearish extremes.

A recovery exceeding 40-50% would suggest a bullish shift in market sentiment. Currently, traders and investors should be cautious of possible further price drops.

Another metric from Adler, the Bitcoin Realized Pricing Bands, revealed that the market is not overextended in higher timeframes. This metric shows the average price at which investors purchased Bitcoin, offering a more accurate perspective than just current market prices.

Using multiples of the realized price (RP) against historical price trends, the analyst identified red and green alerts marking cycle tops and bottoms. As of now, BTC is closer to the 2.4*RP than the 3.2 multiple.

Historically, long-term holders might use a price move beyond the 3.2*RP to take profits. While past performance does not guarantee future results, holders who don’t need to liquidate their BTC can either increase their holdings or adopt a HODL strategy. Panic selling is not advisable.