Bitcoin Mining Update

Bitcoin mining hashprice has stabilized at $48 despite rising difficulty and falling transaction fees.
* A projected 4.3% difficulty drop may provide short-term margin relief.*

Bitcoin’s BTC mining hashprice has stabilized at $48 per petahash per second (PH/s), following a 1.4% increase in difficulty to 113.76 trillion at block 889,081 on March 23.

This increase occurred as the network hashrate dropped below 800 EH/s, reversing a brief rise to 840 EH/s earlier this month.

A Recovery in Price, but Not in Pressure

Bitcoin’s price dipped to $80,000 on March 10, recovering to $85,172 by March 24. However, the hashprice remains under the $50 threshold that many miners depend on for sustainable operations.

Daily mining revenue reached $39.23 million, a slight rebound from the $36.27 million low earlier in the month, but overall revenue has declined 17% since December, when miners were earning over $47 million daily.

Fees Vanish, Margins Vanish Faster

Transaction fee income has also dwindled. As of March 24, fees accounted for just 1.12% of block rewards, the lowest share since January 2022. Per-block fee income now averages 0.04 BTC, reducing a crucial revenue stream for miners amid weak prices.

This pressure drives many operators towards efficiency upgrades. Older machines like the Antminer S19 XP and S19 Pro yield $0.088 and $0.067 per kilowatt-hour, below typical electricity rates in many areas, risking unprofitability for thousands of units. Meanwhile, newer models, such as the Antminer S21 Hyd, continue to perform well, delivering over $4.50 in daily earnings and providing greater margin protection under current conditions. However, the rising difficulty complicates profitability.

Difficulty Climbs, but Timing Betrays the Miners

Bitcoin’s protocol recalibrates difficulty every 2,016 blocks. The recent increase reflects past network activity, not the current slowdown. This timing gap leaves miners facing rising difficulty just as hashrate declines.

Will Baxter, EVP at Braiins, confirmed the 5.6% rise in difficulty, driving hashprice down to $0.054/TH/day. He noted that public miners with modern hardware and treasury holdings are more insulated, while smaller miners dependent on older models, like S19s, are “barely surviving.” He estimated that about 50 EH/s of small and medium-sized mining capacity could shut down this year.

Baxter anticipates hashrate growth in 2025 as large miners continue to expand.

Relief on the Horizon?

The next adjustment, projected for April 7, may decrease difficulty by 4.3% to 108.86 trillion, aligning with the current 10.45-minute average block time that exceeds the target and suggests a downward recalibration.

However, the mining community remains divided. Institutional players with modern rigs and low power costs continue operations, while those with older hardware are scaling back, evidenced by the falling hashrate. Without a price rebound or a surge in transaction fees, hashprice could stay pressured. The upcoming difficulty adjustment will be pivotal for shaping short-term margins, especially with the next halving expected within a year, further reducing block rewards.