Bitcoin Open Interest Reverts to Pre-Election Norms as Prices Stabilize

Bitcoin’s Open Interest on Centralized Exchanges and the CME Returns to Pre-November 2024 Election Levels

Bitcoin’s market activity indicates stabilization as key metrics revert to levels prior to major 2024 events. Open interest (OI) on centralized exchanges (CEXes) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has retraced this month, aligning with pre-November 2024 U.S. presidential election figures.

Similarly, Bitcoin’s futures basis—the difference between futures and spot prices—has normalized to near zero, reflecting levels observed before the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January 2024.

Prior to ETF approval, the basis hovered around 0.556% but narrowed post-approval as increased institutional inflows bolstered liquidity. The current basis showcases restored pricing efficiency between spot and derivatives markets.

Bitcoin’s price recovery to $83,400 on March 14, 2025, contrasts with last week’s low of $76,600, demonstrating resilience amid volatility and external threats such as Trump’s tariff proposals. Notably, the spot price is substantially higher than pre-ETF levels of $42,265 per bitcoin, indicating influence from broader macroeconomic or regulatory factors.

Additionally, altcoin open interest dominance has significantly decreased, suggesting reduced speculative activities in non-bitcoin assets, as traders ramp up their focus on BTC and ETH amid these stabilizing metrics. Market participants view the normalization of open interest and futures basis as encouraging indicators, potentially leading to fewer abrupt price fluctuations and a more consistent environment for investors.

Though the $83,400 BTC spot price challenges expectations based on normalized metrics, experts attribute this to ongoing macroeconomic trends, including easing inflation and regulatory changes from the Trump administration. Bitcoin’s adaptability after major events is a testament to its evolving maturity as an asset class, with speculative pressures seemingly diminished.