President Trump’s Weekend Announcement on Bitcoin Reserve

A weekend Truth Social post from President Donald Trump initiated the first steps towards establishing a strategic U.S. bitcoin (BTC) reserve. However, Polymarket traders are skeptical about the likelihood of this occurring within the first 100 days.

As of the latest updates, Polymarket bettors have assigned a 23% chance that a strategic BTC reserve will be created by April 30th, 2025.

Key Points

• The contract rules require the U.S. government to hold bitcoin—not through confiscation—by 11:59 PM ET on April 29 for it to resolve to yes. Announcements regarding the reserve do not count.
• Following Trump’s announcement, the chances for a reserve increased from 11% to 23%. Additionally, another contract predicting a reserve by the end of 2025 shows a 65% chance of resolving to yes.
• Initially, Trump’s announcement only highlighted XRP and SOL as components of the reserve, resulting in a spike in their value, before later clarifying that BTC and ETH would also be included.
• Notable traders include Theo5, who has realized a $40,000 profit on a no position. Conversely, a trader named Polywog incurred a loss of $73,000 on a yes position and lost over $560,000 betting incorrectly on the 2025 election outcome.

Source: Polymarket Analytics