Solana (SOL) Market Update

Solana (SOL) has struggled to sustain its bullish momentum, experiencing a drop of over 40% in the past month. The decline continued with an additional 1.2% loss within a single day, bringing the price down to $137—its lowest level since November 2024.

The sell-off is exacerbated by the collapse of Solana-based meme coins, particularly LIBRA, and concerns about a major token unlock involving 11 million SOL.

Network activity on Solana has significantly declined, further deepening bearish sentiment.

ChatGPT’s Analysis on Solana’s Trajectory Leading Up to March

Finbold analyzed market data and consulted OpenAI’s advanced ChatGPT-4o model for insights on Solana’s trajectory.

Key Factors Impacting Solana’s Downturn

ChatGPT identified the burst of the memecoin bubble as a significant reason for Solana’s recent losses. Numerous speculative tokens saw sharp declines after initial hype, with LIBRA’s collapse amplifying investor worries. This resulted in a liquidity drain that heavily impacted SOL’s price.

Moreover, Solana’s on-chain activity took a hit, with daily transactions falling to 11,871 on February 26 from 71,738 on January 23.

The Total Value Locked (TVL) in Solana’s DeFi ecosystem peaked at $12 billion in January but has now decreased to $7.13 billion, marking a 41% decline in just over a month, according to DefiLlama.

ChatGPT also pointed to an upcoming 15 million SOL token unlock—valued at $7 billion—as a looming threat. If demand does not absorb the additional supply, SOL might face additional downward pressure, which could prolong recovery.

Important Token Unlock Information

As reported by Finbold, Solana’s vesting contracts will unlock 11.16 million SOL on March 1, valued at over $1.53 billion at the current price of $137. This unlock comes from tokens acquired and sold by the now-defunct exchange FTX during its bankruptcy proceedings.

While the potential approval of spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could serve as a catalyst, the likelihood of near-term approval remains low due to regulatory uncertainty. Thus, without institutional inflows, SOL could struggle to regain significant upward momentum.

ChatGPT’s Price Projection for Solana by March 2025

Based on these factors, ChatGPT projects that $180 to $220 is a reasonable price range for Solana by March 2025. In a base case scenario, the AI model forecasts SOL to trade within this range, supported by a possible rebound in DeFi activity and enhanced market sentiment.

Despite this forecast, it still suggests limited upside from current levels due to ongoing macroeconomic challenges and ecosystem-specific issues.

Without new catalysts, SOL’s recovery may remain sluggish. In a bearish scenario, a continued decline in on-chain activity, persistent inflationary pressures, and weak investor sentiment could drive Solana’s price down to $120 before a rebound happens.

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