Bitcoin’s Bearish and Bullish Paths

A crypto strategist, DonAlt, who accurately predicted the start of the current Bitcoin bull market, shares his views on potential future scenarios for BTC.

The Worst-Case Scenario

DonAlt, with a following of 657,500 on X, suggests that it is possible for Bitcoin to experience a collapse similar to its mid-2021 drop, where it lost over 50% of its value in just three months.

Despite eventually recovering losses by November 2021, Bitcoin couldn’t surpass the $69,000 mark before its bull market ended abruptly. If Bitcoin follows this pattern again, it could mean:
– A recovery after a 50% drawdown.
– A new all-time high slightly above $110,000 before a significant downturn.

“To me, worst case [is] we’re here in the cycle. Excited to see how it plays out.”

The Best-Case Scenario

Conversely, DonAlt proposes a best-case scenario where Bitcoin diverges from its halving-based four-year cycle. Bitcoin’s halving reduces miner rewards and has historically triggered supply-demand imbalances leading to price rallies.

Without a rigid four-year cycle, BTC might experience:
– A steady uptrend.
– Less need to time market tops and avoid harsh bear markets.

“This cycle is so chill. Just take it easy. If the market is up? Great you make money. If the market is down? It is what it is, maybe it will go up again.”

Current Bitcoin Status

Currently, DonAlt believes Bitcoin could regain support at $90,000 before the week’s end after a brief slip below $80,000.

“No way they can push it back above $90,000 before the weekly close, right?”

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $86,351, marking a 2% increase for the day.