Story Highlights

• Altcoin Season Index at 21 shows we’re deep in BTC Season.
• Bitcoin dominance stays high as altcoins lag 80–90% below all-time highs.
• M2 liquidity and institutional flow still favor BTC, but altcoin spillover may be next.

With Bitcoin hovering well above $100k and altcoins failing at cycle lows, investors are curious if the altcoin season of 2025 is still possible or if the opportunity has passed. History shows a rhythm in market behavior, and while many claim “this cycle is different,” the data suggests otherwise.

From BTC dominance and institutional inflows to the Altcoin Season Index hitting rock bottom, all signs point to a forthcoming shift in liquidity. In this analysis, I take you through crypto analyst Tracer’s thesis on altseason.

Bitcoin Is Soaring, But Alts Are Sleeping?

It has been disappointing for marketers that, despite the total market cap sitting at $3.24 trillion, altcoins are still significantly underperforming relative to Bitcoin. Data reveals that most alts remain down 80–90% from their all-time highs, while BTC continues breaking new streaks. The analyst highlights that this discrepancy isn’t new; in past cycles, altseason only kicked off after Bitcoin solidified its peak.

The Altcoin Season Index currently sits at 21/100, deeply in “Bitcoin Season” territory. Historically, these levels have marked the start of capital rotation from BTC into alts once Bitcoin shows signs of topping out.

Institutions Are Still Going All-In on Bitcoin?

Institutional behavior has tilted heavily toward Bitcoin, with billion-dollar buys from strategies, along with publicly traded firms and sovereign institutions building BTC treasuries.

Looking at the M2 global money supply, a key liquidity driver, shows a strong correlation with BTC, particularly with a 76-day offset. As M2 expands, Bitcoin absorbs the initial liquidity. However, when this flow saturates, past actions suggest that altcoins often catch the spillover, initiating the true altseason.

Key Market Signals Flashing the Setup

The following market indicators are pointing to a classic pre-altseason setup:

• Bitcoin Dominance: Currently hovering at record highs. Past patterns show that when BTC dominance drops below 55%, it’s a clear sign that capital is rotating into alts.
• Trading Volume Divergence: BTC’s trading volumes have recently dipped compared to previous bull cycles from 2016 and 2021, whereas alt volumes remain sluggish. A simultaneous volume spike in alts, along with a BTC dominance drop, could trigger a major move.
• Fear & Greed Index: Currently at 48, indicating indecision, a common trait during market transitions.

It’s also worth noting that geopolitical tensions, such as those with Iran, have temporarily frozen liquidity. However, such geopolitical dips tend to resolve quickly, presenting prime buying opportunities.

Curious about BTC’s future? Check out our Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction for 2025, 2026-2030!