Iran-Israel War Interruption and Gold Forecast

The Iran and Israel war came to a halt as the USA intervened, leading to a decline in safe haven assets like gold and silver.

The bias in gold has shifted to sell; however, a retracement can be anticipated this week towards major key levels where traders can further sell. This article discusses the key pivot levels for gold buying and selling in the weekly forecast from June 30th to July 4th, 2025.

Table of Contents

• Key economic events of this week
• Gold HTF Overview
• Gold Forecast for June 30th to July 4th, 2025
• Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation

Key Economic Events of This Week

Several significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled this week that may affect XAUUSD.

Tue, Jul 1 – Fed Chair Powell Speaks, ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings
– Powell’s speech may increase volatility, with hawkishness hurting gold and dovishness weakening the USD.
– The ISM Manufacturing PMI provides minimal support for gold, indicating contraction.
– Stronger-than-expected JOLTS job postings may constrain gold upside due to labor market resilience.

Wed, Jul 2 – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
– A strong ADP jobs statistic (105K vs. 37K) indicates labor market strength, potentially strengthening the USD and pressuring gold.

Thu, Jul 3 – Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, ISM Services PMI
– Weaker NFP (120K vs. 139K) and slower wage growth (0.3% vs. 0.4%) favor gold.
– A higher unemployment rate (4.3% vs. 4.2%) also indicates economic cooling.
– If ISM Services PMI shows weakness, gold may see greater upward momentum.

Gold HTF Overview

As June ends, the monthly close may influence July’s gold price trajectory. The price has reached May 2025’s high, with a potential $3122 low. A bearish candle close could lead gold to $3122, whereas a strong bullish close could test $3441.

Gold Forecast for June 30th to July 4th, 2025

The best zone for shorting gold is the $3320-3337 level, due to the POC, breaker block, and golden fib level on the 3-hour chart.

For selling, the closest level on the 30-minute chart lies at $3301-3313, where the price has broken support, now acting as resistance.

Major buying is expected from the $3232-$3202 level, recognized as a 4-hour order block and FVG in gold.

Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation

Gold presents both buy and sell opportunities this week. Lower time frames suggest sells, while higher time frames indicate buy positions.

Resistance Levels

• $3301-3313 – support turned resistance
• $3320-3337 – POC, breaker block, and golden fib level

Support Levels

• $3232-$3202 – 4h order block and FVG

Disclosure: This article does not constitute investment advice. The content herein is for educational purposes only.